Sam Arbesman and Greg Laughlin, the authors of the scientific paper, used the history and dates of previously discovered exoplanets to develop their system. What they did was:
Using the properties of previously discovered exoplanets, we developed a simple metric of habitability for each planet that uses its mass and temperature to rate it on a scale of 0 to 1, where 1 is Earth-like, and 0 is so very not Earth-like. Plotting these values over time and taking the upper envelope yields a nice march towards habitability.
Using a simple bootstrap sampling analysis, we calculated when a logistic curve fit to such an upper envelope would get to a habitability of approximately 1. And the likeliest time is early to mid-2011, or more precisely, early May 2011.
And if not then, their data shows that there is a 75% chance that the discovery will happen by the end of 2013 (many astronomers predict this timeframe as well). In February 2011, NASA's Kepler mission will release a boatload of data that I'm assuming will help in find this Earthy planet. The universe is so big I'm surprised I didn't realize discovering another Earth-like planet was inevitable. There goes thinking that I'm a unique snowflake.
damnn, hope so, supportin as always
ReplyDeletelifehack guy supports this blog..
ReplyDeleteThat would be amazing if we found one. Hopefully we will be able to get to it.
ReplyDeleteWoooow... I sure hope so!
ReplyDeleteLet's hope the beings inhabiting this new planet aren't as destructive in nature as the ones on this planet.
ReplyDeleteI sure hope this prediction comes true.
ReplyDeleteCome on we need one or two.
ReplyDeleteIt's very likely that I'm just not understanding this.. But how do you even predict something like this? They are using past discoveries to estimate future finds? I mean, let's think about it like this.
ReplyDeleteLet's say last year I found $100 on the ground. Let's say this year, almost to the day I found another $100 on the ground. Does this mean next year I will find another $100 on the ground?
Obviously not. The odds of finding money next year aren't changed at all due to my past discoveries. It is not more likely, nor is it any less likely. The odds are pretty much the same.
meh I'm doubtful :/
ReplyDelete@Buff Gamer Good point there!
ReplyDeleteFollow me bros.
ReplyDeletehttp://shredguitarz.blogspot.com
I hope so!
ReplyDeleteShowing the love, daily.
-Mr. B
why don't we just terraform mars?
ReplyDeleteWould be kind of cool, but freaky at the same time. I hate aliens!
ReplyDeleteParallel Universe?
ReplyDelete@BuffGamer You line of logic is completely flawed in this particular example, although hey, I can't fault someone for trying to think outside of the box.
ReplyDeleteSad, I'll not live to see us reach it if we do find one. Neither will my children's children.
That would be so cool to find another hospitable planet!
ReplyDeleteWhat if the discovery is made at a time more like.... 12/22/2012? That would be intense
ReplyDeleteReturn love at induceluciddreaming.blogspot.com
@Ankiseth
ReplyDeleteI'll admit I'm no scientist, nor astronomer, nor mathematician. But I am awesome.
There is already evidence of over one hundred thousand Earth-like planets across the Universe. They're just so far away, some even in the Milky Way as well.
ReplyDeleteWe just have to invent warp-speed/light-speed, respectively. :D
i thought we already did?
ReplyDeletei hope so i need to leave this rock
ReplyDeleteWe need more vespene gas!
ReplyDeleteWon't matter if we do. Can't reach it. YET.
ReplyDeleteAwesome, don't see us taking one over anytime soon though, that requires a lot of resources.
ReplyDeletei hope so it
ReplyDeleteDude we better, im really bored of the world.
ReplyDeletescientist will definitely find it. the future of astrophysics is looking good!
ReplyDeletei doube it, but it'd be nice
ReplyDeleteWow, this is very interesting to read - I look forward to seeing if an earth-like planet does get found!
ReplyDeletehttp://pagesixxx.blogspot.com/
I don't believe that. But even if we find it can we even go to it?
ReplyDeleteShowing my DAILY support,I REALLY need yours aswell!!
ReplyDeleteWould be great if we could inhabit it
ReplyDeletethis is unfortunately not possible, we should forget our differences and work together to get to the space :D!
ReplyDeletepersonally I think that there is another earth like planet out there, but the problem would be getting to it and habiting it.
ReplyDeleteWow, that'd be awesome to find.
ReplyDeletewe already have it just hasnt been revealed to the public yet
ReplyDeleteabout damn time we find another earth, but when are we going to try and fly there? and if we do fly there, i want on board...
ReplyDelete