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Sep 18, 2010

Will We Discover An Earth-like Planet By May 2011?

Using math way more complicated than I fully understand, a scientific paper predicts that we will find a potentially habitable Earth-like planet by early May 2011. Oh.

Sam Arbesman and Greg Laughlin, the authors of the scientific paper, used the history and dates of previously discovered exoplanets to develop their system. What they did was:

Using the properties of previously discovered exoplanets, we developed a simple metric of habitability for each planet that uses its mass and temperature to rate it on a scale of 0 to 1, where 1 is Earth-like, and 0 is so very not Earth-like. Plotting these values over time and taking the upper envelope yields a nice march towards habitability.

Using a simple bootstrap sampling analysis, we calculated when a logistic curve fit to such an upper envelope would get to a habitability of approximately 1. And the likeliest time is early to mid-2011, or more precisely, early May 2011.
And if not then, their data shows that there is a 75% chance that the discovery will happen by the end of 2013 (many astronomers predict this timeframe as well). In February 2011, NASA's Kepler mission will release a boatload of data that I'm assuming will help in find this Earthy planet. The universe is so big I'm surprised I didn't realize discovering another Earth-like planet was inevitable. There goes thinking that I'm a unique snowflake.

39 comments:

vibe said...

damnn, hope so, supportin as always

shirou said...

lifehack guy supports this blog..

niceonice said...

That would be amazing if we found one. Hopefully we will be able to get to it.

WakeOfBuzzards said...

Woooow... I sure hope so!

modest crisis said...

Let's hope the beings inhabiting this new planet aren't as destructive in nature as the ones on this planet.

BobComboBreaker said...

I sure hope this prediction comes true.

Biff Tanner said...

Come on we need one or two.

Buff Gamer said...

It's very likely that I'm just not understanding this.. But how do you even predict something like this? They are using past discoveries to estimate future finds? I mean, let's think about it like this.

Let's say last year I found $100 on the ground. Let's say this year, almost to the day I found another $100 on the ground. Does this mean next year I will find another $100 on the ground?

Obviously not. The odds of finding money next year aren't changed at all due to my past discoveries. It is not more likely, nor is it any less likely. The odds are pretty much the same.

applecider said...

meh I'm doubtful :/

Come At Me Bro said...

@Buff Gamer Good point there!

ShredGuitar said...

Follow me bros.

http://shredguitarz.blogspot.com

Mr. Black said...

I hope so!

Showing the love, daily.

-Mr. B

Reverend Thrux said...

why don't we just terraform mars?

UnseenSniper said...

Would be kind of cool, but freaky at the same time. I hate aliens!

¡ɥsoſ said...

Parallel Universe?

Ankiseth said...

@BuffGamer You line of logic is completely flawed in this particular example, although hey, I can't fault someone for trying to think outside of the box.

Sad, I'll not live to see us reach it if we do find one. Neither will my children's children.

ramen noodle recipes said...

That would be so cool to find another hospitable planet!

Iggy said...

What if the discovery is made at a time more like.... 12/22/2012? That would be intense
Return love at induceluciddreaming.blogspot.com

Buff Gamer said...

@Ankiseth

I'll admit I'm no scientist, nor astronomer, nor mathematician. But I am awesome.

Hagar said...

There is already evidence of over one hundred thousand Earth-like planets across the Universe. They're just so far away, some even in the Milky Way as well.

We just have to invent warp-speed/light-speed, respectively. :D

Viperman said...

i thought we already did?

problem.question said...

i hope so i need to leave this rock

Mr. Smith said...

We need more vespene gas!

The Loon said...

Won't matter if we do. Can't reach it. YET.

ramrod360 said...

Awesome, don't see us taking one over anytime soon though, that requires a lot of resources.

hunter time said...

i hope so it

Sethisto said...

Dude we better, im really bored of the world.

Naj said...

scientist will definitely find it. the future of astrophysics is looking good!

Katie Greene said...

i doube it, but it'd be nice

jamie-lee said...

Wow, this is very interesting to read - I look forward to seeing if an earth-like planet does get found!

http://pagesixxx.blogspot.com/

! Starcraft II ! said...

I don't believe that. But even if we find it can we even go to it?

David said...

Showing my DAILY support,I REALLY need yours aswell!!

Caprica said...

Would be great if we could inhabit it

Mc Uncool said...

this is unfortunately not possible, we should forget our differences and work together to get to the space :D!

Luke Parker said...

personally I think that there is another earth like planet out there, but the problem would be getting to it and habiting it.

Indie0987 said...

Wow, that'd be awesome to find.

chasityxo said...

we already have it just hasnt been revealed to the public yet

Sparrow said...

Stopping by to say hi to another interesting blog!

Oni said...

about damn time we find another earth, but when are we going to try and fly there? and if we do fly there, i want on board...